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July 12, 2024 • Twitter.com/easterneye
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by BARNIE CHOUDHURY
PEOPLE voted along religious lines in Leicester
East, which saw the country’s only Conservative
gain, sources from several political parties have
told Eastern Eye.
They also warned the city is “sitting on a religious
powder keg just waiting to explode” following
tensions in August and September 2022.
Leicester East had been a Labour stronghold
since 1987, when Keith Vaz became the first south
Asian MP in the UK after the Second World War.
“It became clear on the doorstep that we were
facing tactical voting,” said one Liberal Democrat
source. “When we went to Rushey Mede and Troon,
we were told that they were told to vote for the Con-
servative candidate.
“They were also angry that the Labour candidate
wasn’t from Leicester, so they were told to vote for
someone local and someone Hindu.”
Hindus are the major religious groups in both
Rushey Mede (60 per cent) and Troon (27 per cent)
and in the Leicester East constituency.
The result was a surprising win for the Conser-
vative Shivani Raja, who topped the poll with 14,526
votes, 4,426 more than her nearest rival, Labour’s
Rajesh Agrawal.
Eastern Eye has approached Raja for comment.
Vaz ended fifth with 3,681 votes, and party sourc-
es had expected him to perform better than he did.
“There’s no doubt in our minds that religion had
a lot to do with his defeat,” said one party source
who wanted to remain anonymous.
“Ever since the problems in 2022, we’ve noticed a
change in Leicester.
“The consensus and coalition that Keith built up
over more than 30 years are gone. This was a direct
appeal to religion.”
Vaz was not doing interviews, but in a message to
his supporters, seen by Eastern Eye, he said, “It has
been my privilege to have won eight consecutive
elections spanning 32 years in Leicester East. It has
been my passion to bring communities together.
“I have congratulated the new MP for Leicester
East most warmly, and I wish her well representing
this marvellous constituency.
“I hope we meet again soon.”
Several sources told Eastern Eye they were fearful
of speaking up and commenting on what happened
during the elections. They are veterans of Leicester
politics and of the city’s south Asian communities.
“I don’t want to do the city down or add fuel to
the fire,” said one. “But we’re sitting on a religious
powder keg just waiting to explode.
“It’s hidden and no one wants to talk about the
tensions which exist.
“Go into the Hindu temples, go into the masjids,
and there’s a definite difference which wasn’t there
a decade ago. Something’s shifted, we’re no longer
united, and that’s frightening.
“Some community leaders will deny we have a
problem, and they’re the ones who’ll let us sleep
walk into trouble.”
Labour members criticised the party for “foisting
an outsider” on them. Agrawal, they said, did not
know Leicester politics and made too much of his
record as a deputy mayor of London.
In a statement, he said, “I am proud to have run a
very positive campaign and though we didn’t get
the result we hoped for in Leicester East, due to
votes splitting, we now have the Labour government
to deliver the change that our country so desperately
needs after 14 years of Tory chaos.
“I have had thousands of conversations on the
doorsteps in the past months in Leicester East and it
is very clear that the people are fed up of the 14
years of Tory chaos and want change.
“The main issues that came up were [the] cost-of-
living crisis, unemployment, lack of GP appoint-
ments, NHS waiting lists, lack of places in school for
children and lack of quality and affordable homes.
“I am now looking to take a break and spend
some time with my family who haven’t seen much
of me during the campaign.”
But Labour sources are not happy and said their
party took the south Asian vote for granted.
“We’re fed up with Labour doing everything from
the centre and imposing what they think is best for
us,” said one source who described themselves as
100 per cent party loyalist. “No matter what you
think about Keith [Vaz], he was a bloody good MP
who knew the city and was a national figure who
had influence. He got things done.
“We’ve been rudderless for the past five years,
and instead of choosing someone the city knows,
they impose an outsider.”
Another unnamed source said, “It wasn’t Raj’s
fault, he was the wrong man in the wrong place at
the wrong time.
“And who pays the price? We do.
“We now have a Tory MP who knows nothing
about politics, who won’t be effective because the
Tories don’t have a base here and no clout in parlia-
ment, and that’s Labour’s fault.
“My party was absent. They didn’t send any big
names to Leicester East, instead they concentrated
on places where Muslims threatened them, and
look what happened. You just need to look at what
happened in Birmingham [Perry Barr]. Khalid
[Mahmood] got his arse handed to him by someone
who supported Palestine.”
The new justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood,
MP for Birmingham Ladywood, also survived a
scare from Akhmed Yakoob. He caused political
tremors in the West Midlands, coming third in the
mayoral election after scoring almost 70,000 votes.
Labour just scraped in, ousting Tory Andy Street.
Yakoob campaigned on Gaza and Kashmir, and
voiced support for pro-Khalistan figures.
Back in Leicester East, and the businessman
Jaffer Kapasi said he had noticed a shift towards
LOOK closely at last Thursday’s
(4) general election results, and
you will have noticed a political
tremor when it came to Asian
voters, writes Barnie Choudhury.
A tremor which could become
an earthquake at the next general
election, and the mainstream
parties should think the unthink-
able. These polls have shown that
even when you’re predicted to get
a landslide, and even when you
win by a landslide, be prepared for
south Asians to spoil your party.
For months, I’ve been telling
anyone who’ll listen that we ig-
nore the Muslim vote at our peril.
Gaza was going to make a sub-
stantial difference to these polls.
Few listened. They told me the
same thing happened in 2005,
when the feared backlash against
Tony Blair’s New Labour govern-
ment came to nought.
But this was different, and all
the signs were there.
First, the Conservatives failed
to call for an immediate ceasefire
and condemn Israel for what
many Muslim countries called a
genocide. Remember, South Afri-
ca took Israel to the International
Court of Justice (ICJ) – the top
court in the United Nations – over
that very issue.
Second, the Labour party pre-
varicated and eventually called
for an immediate “humanitarian”
ceasefire on the condition that Is-
rael feels secure. Dozens of La-
bour councillors resigned, and 10
Labour frontbenchers quit so
they could vote for a ceasefire.
This left many Muslim voters re-
alising they had no option but to
fight against both parties.
A quick history lesson. In the
1960s, south Asians, Africans and
people from the Caribbean who
were part of the British empire
were welcomed with open arms
to fill those jobs none of the in-
digenous population would do.
We forget that our parents and
grandparents were British citizens
by virtue of our colonial past.
Labour and the trades union
movement recruited us with vows
of fraternity and equality. We de-
livered bloc votes and, they, in all
honesty, promised jam tomor-
row. Speak to anyone who lived
through the first waves of mass
immigration, and you’ll hear sto-
ries of racism and little protection.
It wasn’t until the 1990s that
we started seeing a shift, where
south Asians started to leave La-
bour and vote for the Tories. In
the 2000s, more and more, par-
ticularly British Indians, crossed
the political aisle. Today, thanks
to the Conservative party, we’ve
had our first south Asian prime
minister, chancellor, home secre-
tary, business secretary, health
secretary and culture secretary.
But in every general election,
there’s always an unexpected sto-
ry. For me, 2024 is the untold sto-
ry of the independents rather
than the rise of Reform UK.
Undoubtedly, the biggest La-
bour beast to fall was Jonathan
Ashworth in Leicester South.
Sources have told me they urged
Ashworth to resign his front-
bench position to win over the
Muslim vote. His refusal may
have cost him, because the even-
tual winner, Shockat Adam, won
by a mere 979 votes, and declared
“this is for Gaza” in his victory
speech. Ashworth, sources told
me, became complacent, taking
the south Asian vote for granted.
Another casualty was the veter-
an Muslim Labour MP for Birming-
ham Perry Barr, Khalid Mahmood,
who lost to the independent,
Ayoub Khan, by 507 votes. Once
again, the reason was Gaza.
It was a similar story in Black-
burn, where the independent
candidate, Adnan Hussain,
tapped into local anger over the
war in the Middle East to win in a
previously safe Labour seat.
In Dewsbury and Batley (a new
seat), Iqbal Mohamed won by
6,934 votes. He had left Labour
because of his former party’s
stance on Gaza. We must remem-
ber Batley and Spen was a Labour
seat, and the Muslim vote was
crucial there. And two months
ago, Labour lost control of Kir-
klees Council, which is in the new
constituency, and elected five in-
dependent councillors.
Up and down the country we
have seen Labour shedding votes
and coming close to losing.
In Ilford North, Muslim voters
punished Labour’s health secre-
tary, Wes Streeting, for his stance
on Gaza. In October 2023, he told
LBC that “sometimes you need
quiet diplomacy, not megaphone
diplomacy”. By the time Labour
changed its position, it was prob-
ably too late to win back a core, and
once loyal, constituency. Voters
slashed his 9,000 majority to 528.
You must wonder whether Street-
ing forgot that almost 44 per cent
of Ilford are south Asian, and 30
per cent of the area are Muslim.
Look closely, and the warning
signs were there, but you must
wonder too whether Labour was
either tone deaf or felt it could ig-
nore its core minority vote.
To make matters worse, Sir
Keir Starmer made an enormous
gaffe when he wrongly demon-
ised Bangladeshis as illegal immi-
grants. It must have been a party
line because other MPs, including
Ashworth, parroted the same
myth. For the record, Home Offi-
ce figures show that Iran, Albania,
Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria head
the nations who arrive on small
boats1 (source: Home Office).
I covered election night for the
BBC, and I was in Luton, where
one in three in the town is Mus-
lim. Both Labour incumbents re-
signed their shadow cabinet posi-
tions in November 2023, so they
could vote for a ceasefire, defying
the party line. Even so, supporters
of independent Muslim candidates
inside the hall barracked them
during their acceptance speeches.
Afterwards, both returning MPs
told me they had to rebuild trust
among all communities.
But before we focus fully on the
Muslim vote, consider Harrow
East. Sources have told Eastern
Eye this was a target Labour seat,
and it put in resources trying to
unseat the incumbent, Bob Black-
man. But here’s the thing – 46 per
cent of this constituency are
south Asian, mainly Indian and
predominantly Hindus. Blackman
knows this, and more important-
ly, he makes sure his constituents
know he knows and values the
largest minority group. They val-
ue that he is one of the few politi-
cians who actively demonstrates
they don’t take their south Asian
communities for granted.
The final twist in this election
is the number of south Asians
who ran for Reform UK. It will
seem bizarre that those with im-
migrant heritage are themselves
anti-immigrant. We can’t be sur-
prised. In my view, they show the
changing face of Britain. South
Asian communities are incredibly
aspirational, often holding down
three jobs to make sure their chil-
dren can go to private school and
top universities. We’re now at a
stage in our island’s history where
they – like previous immigrant
communities – consider themsel-
ves more British than the British.
Think back to the Goodness
Gracious Me parody of the Coop-
ers and Robinsons. They have
forgotten the value of immigrants
who work back-breaking hours in
back-breaking jobs that indigenous
‘Election results reflect perils of taking south Asian vote for granted’
LABOUR MEMBERS BLAME PARTY LEADERS AS YOUNG TORY DEFEATS VETERAN POLITICIANS
Alarm over role of religion in Leic
EXCLUSIVE
‘HIDDEN TENSIONS’? Tactical voting was
the reason for the Conservative candidate’s
victory in Leicester East, sources say; and
(clockwise from top left, facing page) Rajesh
Agrawal, Keith Vaz and Claudia Webbe
© Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images